Tech and Change 20120822
   I said this primarily because, unlike any of the criminologists I was reading, I saw the major cause of the large uptick in crime as stemming from a loss of authority by our political system. This began in the 1960s, as did the increase in crime.

Over the week end, actually while driving to Denver I began thinking about the few times when I have been correct in assessing on coming changes. I was terribly wrong on my 6 dollar a gallon gas by 1985. But One time I was right was in the late 90s when our crime rates were soaring. I began to tell my colleagues that the rates would soon begin to fall. I said this primarily because, unlike any of the criminologists I was reading, I saw the major cause of the large uptick in crime as stemming from a loss of authority by our political system. This began in the 1960s, as did the increase in crime. What do I mean by authority? It refers to people's belief in the fairness of the existing legal-political system. Government that lose authority sooner or later face crises. In the sixties the anti war movement, the civil rights movement, and the feminist movement were all challenges to the existing order. Add in the widespread use of illegal drugs, and the concomitant acceptance of behavior ostensibly illegal and you have further erosion of authority. These challenges to established ways could have continued until some major upheaval occurred. But by the 1990s the war in Vietnam was long settled, the civil rights movement had made some progress within the existing order, and so had feminism. The domestic warriors of the sixties were getting along in years. In fact the U.S. population was gradually getting older, with average age creeping up.

The relative decline in the number of young people was another factor that prompted my belief that crime would decline. Crime is mainly a young person's game. When you examine crime data it is astonishing how young robbers are, rapists are, etc.. (Interestingly murderers tend to be the oldest of criminals) I was certainly not the only sociologist who could see that fewer young people was likely to lead to lower crime rates, but what made me most assured of this was that the young people I was coming in touch with, even the ones who styled themselves as radicals, anarchists, dopers, and so on, were not,in general, nearly as alienated from society as the sixties generation. They practiced a quiet, I'm tempted to say conformist brand of deviation.

While Still driving to Denver- demographics, the word floated up. Yes, an interesting question; how will demographic factors affect technological developments? While demographics can seem like a boring subject I have found that paying attention to such factors can reveal a great deal about what is brewing politically and culturally.

The aging of our population is continuing. What will that matter? Let's see. Well according to some the old will be left behind, they just don't get the new tech. Certainly many elderly are a bit shy of the new gadgetry, but that to me is looking through the wrong end of the telescope. Can we think a bit about how technology can be developed to help the elderly? How about new forms of health care? New devices to help the infirm, etc. as the old become an increasingly large sector of the population they become a greater market sector for the techy toys. And unlike pervious generations of the elderly many today have some cash to spend.

On the other side of the coin the percentage of the population we might call young is actually getting smaller. They are a declining market. Further an increasing number of the young are Latinos. Most of our population increase between 2000 and 2010 was due to immigration of many young people. How will this segment of the population affect technology development?

Have to go to the gym now. More when I get to it.


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